Immigration Update: July 2024

Welcome to Emerson Collective’s Immigration Update, a monthly newsletter that seeks to make sense of important immigration-related developments by situating them in broader policy, political, and human contexts.

This month we look at Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee for President Kamala Harris’s track record on immigration. We also discuss the many economic benefits that newcomers provide to the U.S. through labor force expansion and innovation. Finally, we take a look at the initial outcome of the election in Venezuela and what that might mean for migration and stability in the region. 

As always, thank you for reading. Now, let’s dive in.

Marshall Fitz

• VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TRACK RECORD ON IMMIGRATION

• THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION 

• 2024 VENEZUELA ELECTIONS

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TRACK RECORD ON IMMIGRATION

The daughter of immigrants, Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently demonstrated her commitment to fair and just immigration reform, advancing policies that respect human dignity and bolster the economy. From her time as Attorney General of California and a U.S. Senator to her current role as Vice President and presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee, Harris has been an advocate for common sense reforms that aim to enhance our prosperity and strengthen our security while upholding our values. As a senator, she championed pathways to citizenship for Dreamers, efforts to keep families together, access to counsel, and smart border security measures.

As Vice President, Harris has focused on addressing root causes of migration, working to improve conditions in Central America and create opportunities so people are able to remain and thrive in their home countries. Harris has mobilized a remarkable $5.2 billion in private sector investments in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador while supporting small businesses and promoting the economic empowerment of women through the In Her Hands initiative. 

This approach has complemented the Administration’s paradigm shifting approach to managing migration across the hemisphere. By strengthening cooperation among governments, expanding lawful pathways, and investing in root causes and in communities hosting large numbers of migrants, the Administration has established a sensible framework for making migration safe, legal, and orderly. This holistic approach, which recognizes that border policy is but one component of a strategy to effectively manage large-scale migration, is paying dividends with the number of arrivals at the southwest border plummeting over the last six months.

In stark contrast, former President Trump's immigration policies were marked by harsh restrictions on legal immigration, elimination of support for root cause strategies, and severe enforcement practices like family separation that did not significantly reduce the number of migrants coming to the U.S. The ACLU has outlined how a second Trump Administration would seek to implement a mass deportation program while restricting access to asylum and other legal channels. Strategies to deter migration through extreme border and interior enforcement measures have never succeeded on their own. And cruel policies like intentionally separating families to send a message to future migrants are fundamentally un-American. 

The Trump campaign continues to attack Harris’ approach on immigration, using chilling rhetoric like “border invasion” and claims that immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of America. But the campaign’s articulated policies will not restore order and control over the border and, if implemented, would create huge economic losses for the U.S. The only long term solution is to recognize that the drivers of migration will only continue to grow and to double down on regional engagement, legal pathways, and investment in the region. Vice President Harris is positioned to continue that strategy and for many years has demonstrated the vision for, and understanding of, what common sense immigration reform should include.

THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION

Harris' support for comprehensive immigration reform also has significant positive implications for the U.S. economy. The recently released Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report highlights that immigration substantially boosts economic growth, contributing to labor force expansion and innovation. Specifically:

• $1.2 Trillion in Federal Revenues: Over the next decade, immigration will add$1.2 trillion to federal revenues, mainly through individual income and payroll taxes.

• Economic Growth: Immigration will drive economic activity, further enhancing tax revenues. By 2034, annual revenues are expected to increase by $167 billion, accounting for 2.2% of total revenues.

• Job Creation and Economic Activity: More immigrants mean increased economic activity, translating to more jobs and a stronger economy.

• Federal Deficit Reduction: The rise in revenues will also help cut the projected federal deficit by $900 billion over the next decade.

Studies consistently show that immigrants play a vital role in sectors ranging from technology to agriculture, filling essential workforce gaps with entrepreneurial grit. As New York Times opinion writer Paul Krugman recently laid out in his column, "Immigration Is Great for Jobs, Actually," the relationship between immigration, unemployment, and economic growth is clear. Increased immigration does not lead to higher unemployment rates among native workers because immigrants tend to complement rather than compete with the native workforce. And the number of jobs in the American economy are not fixed in a zero sum competition. More workers filling different roles create more jobs, not fewer.  

As we noted in an earlier update this year, the CBO also concluded that immigration “will contribute to a $7 trillion increase in GDP and a $1 trillion increase in additional government revenue over the next decade.” In other words, immigration helps grow the economy and create jobs. America’s promise as a place to pursue one’s dreams continues to be among the nation’s most important competitive advantages. Policymakers and leaders in the U.S. should be focused on seizing and growing that advantage rather than undermining the contributions of immigrants. 

↗ Click here to read Marshall's LinkedIn post about this news

↗ Click here to read FWD.us's brief "Immigration Benefits All Americans"

2024 VENEZUELA ELECTIONS

The fallout from Sunday’s elections in Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amid allegations of vote-rigging and lack of transparency, could significantly impact migration flows. If Maduro succeeds in holding on to power after what is likely to be a protracted process, many Venezuelans may seek to escape the worsening conditions. This could lead to an increased number of migrants attempting the journey north to the United States.

Over 8 million Venezuelans - around a quarter of the total population - have left the country over the last 9 years in one of the biggest migrations in the world. The vast majority of displaced Venezuelans continue to live in Latin America. But if the political and economic situation in Venezuela does not improve​, another exodus could be on the horizon, putting even more pressure on countries in the region. In a poll of Venezuelan voters two months ago, more than 40% indicated they would consider leaving the country if Maduro remains in power.

These historic migration flows were foreseeable, if not completely preventable. For example, regional experts advised the Trump Administration that severe U.S. sanctions would deepen the political crisis in Venezuela and trigger an even more precarious economic crisis forcing people to move. The sanctions have indeed severely restricted Venezuela's access to global markets, profoundly destabilizing the economy, and contributing to mass migration.

Unless a fair democratic transition occurs, we should expect dire consequences for the people of Venezuela. The U.S. and countries in the region should prepare and partner to support the growing number of Venezuelans fleeing, including through the creation of safe and dignified legal pathways within the region.